The United States energy information administration (EIA) said, September and October of idle capacity of 2 million barrels per day, higher than 7 ~ 8 months of 1.8 million barrels. However, compared with the historical high at present, idle capacity is quite mild. 2009 ~ 2011, global crude oil daily spare capacity is about 3.6 million barrels, last September and October is for 2.7 million barrels.

EIA also believe that, although the global oil demand falls, but Iran outside of the global crude oil production is increasing. Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are increased production, the United States last from huge shale reserves get more oil, and is expected to begin in the next few years as the world's largest oil producing countries.

According to the EIA data, Saudi Arabia the past 60 day oil daily output of 9.8 million barrels, compared with 7 ~ 8 month two months high of about 100000 barrels, and at the same time, most of the global idle capacity are in Saudi Arabia.

Non-opec countries in the global oil production in the proportion of the close to 60%, analyzes believed that although OPEC members of efforts to control oil production, so as to keep higher oil prices, and OPEC countries outside the and private enterprise is more focuses on improving production to gain more profit.

The international energy agency (IEA) previously is expected in the fourth quarter OPEC countries other than oil, supply will rise to 53.6 million barrels, and the third quarter, compared with an increase of 600000 barrels, supply.

Production, EIA report, due to OPEC and America's strong output level, global September, October crude oil output over the same period increased. Statistics show that, non-opec countries September, October year-on-year crude oil output of 400000 barrels per day, and Libya, Iraq, Saudi Arabia crude oil output are higher than the same period last year level.

The main oil consumption countries economic growth is still weak, oil demand is not enough to digest all excess supply, or will lead to further increase the spare capacity. Us crude oil inventory is continuous two weeks to rise, to the highest level in history, but also indirectly proves the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil.

Goldman sachs group analysis said, with the new transportation network relieve America's crude oil transportation bottleneck, new supply is expected to further depress prices.

Haitong futures a analysts think: "later the demand and supply of the weak and the U.S. presidential election in the oil price pressing still will be the main line, mid-november ago, oil shocks downward trend will continue to fluctuate, then need to be alert to the debt and the Middle East will occur extreme events impact."

The fourth quarter, the crude oil seasonal consumption usually weak in the third quarter; European economic unceasingly is also down, demand continues to decline, among them, the German October manufacturing PMI initial value dropped to 45.7, below the expected 48.0 and and the end of a month value 47.4; And China, although China on September crude oil import link increased by 9.13%, year-on-year still fell by 1.81%. In the above factors influence, EIA is expected, the global demand for crude oil is on October 9 month fell 900000 barrels per day.

The price, as of last week, as the European benchmark brent crude oil prices have from August 3 months high accumulated fell 7.8%, the market price of crude oil is in the middle of September peak accumulated dropped 13%.

According to the dow Jones statistics, in the past a month, hedge funds and other fund management institutions do more than the New York mercantile exchange crude oil futures, options products position decreased by 23%.

Analyzes believed that in the fed's stimulus measures influence, will lead to a weaker dollar, and the dollar tend to push up oil prices. At the same time, because the market is expected in the next period of time, the global crude oil supply will continue to rise, the expected ended in September crude oil has been rising momentum.